Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Things Learned Tonight
--No matter what a person has done in their life, they are still allowed to give their opinions on election night [e.g. Tom DeLay]
--Next to Obama winning, I am most happy that the buses will continue to run in Lawrence! YES!
--Hologram reporters rule!
--You know, re-watching that last John McCain appearance on Saturday Night Live, I feel really bad for John McCain...If only he could have been like that the entire time...full of humor, the ability to laugh at himself. I wish it could have been different for him...if he just could have beaten Bush in 2000.
The Worst Possible Outcome
I have been tossing this idea around in my head: three major twists of political history from 2000 until 2008 have worked to keep John McCain out of the White House.
Consider the following counterfactuals:
Al Gore wins Florida in 2000 in a disputed recount: Now conservatives are angry. Just when they have a decent shot at the White House, Rove/Bush screw it up. Another four years in the wilderness. And they have the feeling they were robbed. 9/11 still occurs, because the biggest failure was the lack of imagination to see what al-Qaeda could do and that failure crossed party lines. In the months that follow 9/11, Republicans begin the drum beat for investigations, etc. But unlike actual history, the attack is blamed almost entirely on the Democrats. There is no "My Pet Goat" moment for the Republicans. President Bush didn't receive the August 16, 2001 PDB briefing -- President Gore did. And the inability to turn the tragedy into a bipartisan failure -- President Gore had been a top government official since 1993 -- dooms the Democrats on national security issues. (This counterfactual shows that most of the blame arguments post-9/11 were nothing more than political CYA; I have no doubt that this counterfactual world has Sean Hannity mentioning the PDB every 8.2 seconds). The Republicans turn to McCain, who has the national security credentials to credibly and savagely attack Gore. With the full backing of the base, he could have run to the center and been the relaxed candidate that nearly took down Bush in 2000. And McCain is not facing the loose, relaxed Gore we see today. He is facing the wooden Bill Clinton-lite who is barely able to get out of his own way.
John Kerry squeaks out a win in Ohio in 2004: Again, you have to remember that the President Kerry that would be running for re-election in 2008 is not the John Kerry you saw on Meet The Press this weekend. Think about the awkward politician who votes for it before he votes against it. As Iraq deteriorates -- because there is no way that President Kerry doubles down in Iraq with a surge in 2007 the way President Bush did -- the blame game begins. Right now, Iraq can be squarely laid at the feet of the Republicans. Beyond the initial authorization vote, Democrats can escape all political repercussions for how well/poorly Iraq goes. But in this counterfactual world, the election of President Kerry gives the Democrats a political stake in the matter. And the question rings out, 'Who lost Iraq?" (Again, it is assumed that counterfactual Sean Hannity will claim that we were doing fine in 2004, President Kerry cut and ran, Democrats are weak on national defense, Democrats favor surrender, etc.). The huge Democrat gains of the 2006 election? Since they were a reaction to President Bush's leadership, they are gone. While President Kerry would not have been quite as incompetent on Katrina, I doubt that he would have had enough time (roughly 8-9 months) to make substantial changes to the Bush-era disaster preparedness scenarios. And he would have been hamstrung by the Stooges-like leadership of Blanco and Nagin. The Republicans turn to McCain, who has the national security credentials to credibly and savagely attack Kerry. With the full backing of the base, he could have run to the center and been the relaxed candidate that nearly took down Bush in 2000.
Hillary Clinton beats Obama in the primaries: This would be a far different race if it was McCain v. Clinton. McCain would have never needed to shore up his base. Almost everything that has turned off open-minded voters about John McCain has been an effort to shore up the base and guarantee that they come out to vote. Sarah Palin, William Ayers, the constant attack ads, socialism, etc. Steve Schmidt, Nichole Wallace, etc. are the JV team of the Bush/Cheney 04 campaign. BC04 won by getting out more Republicans than Kerry got out Democrats. KE04 hit every metric a D would want to hit in Ohio and still lost. But they are trying to replicate that magic in a campaign where it is doomed to fail. They haven't sufficiently scared the base about Obama and have turned off voters in the process. But with Hillary, the base would be sufficiently scared. They may not especially like McCain, they may not like the idea of an Obama presidency, but the idea of President Hillary Clinton sends chills down the spine of every Republican. I think a lot of the Hail Marys (Palin, suspending the campaign, etc.) wouldn't have been necessary, because you don't need to give the base any more reasons to vote. With the full backing of the base, he could have run to the center and been the relaxed candidate that nearly took down Bush in 2000. And Hillary would have had to spend time repairing a war within her base as the Obama supporters threaten to vote McCain or stay home. That would have forced her to the left, playing into McCain's hands.
Instead, McCain has to wait until 2008 and draw the worst possible opponent for his style. Politics is a lot like boxing -- styles matter when it comes to matchups. McCain's political style has been to vote with the party on plenty of issues, but when he doesn't agree, he makes sure everyone knows about it. He always tries to position himself as the non-ideological crusading independent. In all three counterfactuals, he would have been able to position himself as the Washington outsider, condemn business as usual in the capitol and keep his normal style without losing the base. But instead, he faced a candidate who was well-positioned to move to the center, had a strong committed base behind him and who didn't enter the race with the Republican base ready for blood. McCain faced a boxer with similar skills in a match where all of the externals of the political environment were for the other guy. And he is going to go down in a Bob Dole-like defeat as a result.
Matt's Predictions
Election Day has arrived
Matt didn't post about the election for the sake of his mental health. I didn't post because I didn't have anything new to say. But now that
In the 7 key Senate races:
Alaska: Begich by 6
Georgia: Martin wins with less than 50%, forcing a December runoff that Chambliss wins.
Kentucky: McConnell by 4
Minnesota: Coleman by 1
New Hampshire: Shaheen by 9
North Carolina: Hagan by 9
Oregon: Merkley by 2
I'd love to hear Matt's predictions.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
As If We Didn't Need Another Reason To Vote For Him
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
More Swift Kids
And just to show they are equal opportunity, here are videos about Hilary and Obama:
Friday, September 26, 2008
One quick question
By comparison, the first 2004 debate was a complete knock out for Kerry in every possible way.* Bush's debate coach considered the worst beatdown in presidential debate history as it was occuring.
* The two biggest victories in terms of just annihilating your opponents were Kerry v. Bush I in 04 and Mondale v. Reagan I in 84. Notice that neither "victor" won the ultimate prize.
My Mid-Debate Thoughts
Things aren't going as well as I hoped for Obama...I hadn't really expected that we would talk so much about cutting spending after both candidates pretty much agreed they would support a $700 billion financial crisis bill...if cutting spending actually matters to voters then McCain will benefit from that based on his debate showing...
My mid-debate reaction
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
The Wire: Seasons 2 & 3
I didn't post a review of Season 2 of the Wire because there wasn't the single moment that jumped out at me like in Season 1...But right away in Season 3 we have drug dealers using Robert's Rules of Order and as a former Parliamentarian I am simply in love! You can see the scene at the 1:57 mark in this video:
Parliament -- Handcuffs
Parliament -- Give Up the Funk [Tear the Roof Off the Sucker]
Both songs are from the Mothership Connection album.
This Blog Is Being Suspended
I am suspending this blog until the end of my financial crisis [which is semi-serious...I need a job, like, yesterday]...thanks John McCain for the great idea[I say half jokingly]...CS, I hope that you prove able to stand up to this financial crisis and continue to blog...be strong!
New York Dolls -- Personality Crisis
This is the fundamental New York Dolls track as it is Track #1 of Album #1.
Teenage Fanclub -- Personality Crisis [New York Dolls Cover]
The Go! Team -- Milk Crisis
This track could be found on the Proof of Youth bonus CD.
Bonus Track:
Placebo -- 20th Century Boy [T.Rex Cover]
This song, as well as the Teenage Fanclub cover, are from the Velvet Goldmine soundtrack.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
"John Edwards Is A Total Loser"
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Songs of the Future: September 20th
This is the first track from the new Secret Machines album which will be released October 14th.
2a. Watcha Clan -- I Mean Diaspora
2b. Watcha Clan -- Eli
Recommended if you like a mixture of "North African, Spanish, Arabic, Hebrew, and French influences along to a strong dance beat." These tracks are from the Diaspora Hi-Fi album.
3. Portugal The Man -- New Orleans
From the Censored Colors album that came out last Tuesday.
Friday, September 19, 2008
Cold War Kids
God, I hope that this album is great.
Cold War Kids -- Something Is Not Right With Me
Cold War Kids -- Golden Gate Jumpers
This track has a laid back Tom Waits feel to it.
Relevant Review: Ben Folds "Way To Normal"
Artist: Ben Folds
Album: Way To Normal
Ranking: William Howard Taft
My first impression is that I'm afraid Ben Folds will never make another album as good as anything from the Five discography. But then again isn't that worry just stupid nearly 10 years after their breakup? I am just going to have to get over it I guess.
In terms of solo albums, I would put this squarely between Rockin' the Suburbs [my favorite] and Songs for Silverman [better than 97% of all other albums but you know...not quite...you know...] in likability. The finest track is Folds latest addition to his "Bitch" trilogy" [after "Song for the Dumped" and "Bitches Ain't Shit"] with "Bitch Went Nuts." The song title tells you all you need to know about the song's content.
The opening track, "Hiroshima," takes a couple of listens to appreciate and at first you might think you have stumbled upon another Ben Folds live album but instead it turns into the funniest opening track since "One Angry Dwarf..."
Ben Folds -- Bitch Went Nuts
Ben Folds -- Hiroshima [B B B Benny Hit His Head]
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Songs of the Future: September 18th
Watch the full concert at baeblemusic.com
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
In Memory of Norman Whitfield
Andrew Sullivan has gone off the deep end
Andrew's Palinophobia officially insulted and offended me with this post.
She is a long-time member of the Assemblies Of God. That's all you need to know.
In Sullivan's mind the conversation would be similar to this.
Sullivan: That's racist.
Someone else: I'm not sure. I think there is an innocuous point there.
Sullivan: David Duke said it. That's all you need to know.
In one easy swoop, Sullivan outed himself as a religious bigot. I understand that as a proudly gay man, Sullivan probably hasn't had the greatest experiences with evangelicals. But what he is practicing here goes directly against what he extols in his book. He praises the Oakeshottian view that faith rests on doubt, not certainty. The point is inarguable: faith requires doubt. There is no need for faith to believe in incontrovertible facts.
Look at Sarah Palin's prayer:
“That our national leaders are sending them out on a task that is from God, that’s what we have to make sure we are praying for, that there is a plan, and that plan is God’s plan.”
Because Sarah Palin never expected Andrew Sullivan to fisk her faith, she probably didn't worry about the wording. But the intent is clear to any reader who is not trying to denigrate her or her faith. She is making one of the most simple prayers any Christian can make: thine will, not mine, be done. It's a prayer I have uttered countless times myself. It's a prayer of uncertainty: Lord, I do not always know what you will is, but I ask that it be done. I ask that you give me guidance and wisdom. Or in this case: I ask that your will be done in Iraq. I am sending my son there and I ask that the plans of our leaders are your plans. Your will, not ours, be done.
Instead of showing the work behind his tortured logic, Sullivan dismisses it with the wave of a hand. "There is no need to for me to explain Sarah Palin's relationship with God. She goes to an Assemblies of God church, ergo she is a misguided fundamentalist bigot who thinks the Iraq war is a mission from God, Blues Brothers-style."
There can be no other way to put it: Andrew Sullivan is just as bigoted as the people who would deny him the love he feels for and from his husband.
Songs of the Future: September 17th
1a. Vancouver -- Penalty Box
From the Flashlights album.
3. The Dears -- Money Babies
This is from the upcoming album Missiles out October 21st.
The Mystery Jets are my "unknown in the United States" British band and that might all change if their album 21 ever gets released on this side of the Atlantic.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
The Electric Company
Captain Beefheart -- Electricity
From the Safe as Milk album.
Moby -- Electricity
Suede -- Electricity
From the Singles collection.
The Avalanches -- Electricity
From the classic Since I Left You album.
The Strokes -- Electricityscape
From the First Impressions of Earth album.
New Cinematic Titanic
Monday, September 15, 2008
Songs of the Future: September 15th
This is from the Everything is Borrowed album and reminds me a little bit of "Dry Your Eyes."
2. Jenny Lewis -- Acid Tongue
The first thing I've heard from the upcoming second solo album of the same name out September 23rd.
3. Dylan Champagne -- From Here To There
I've been watching The Wire, so I can't help but think of Omar as the whistling begins in this song. The press release accompanying this music lists comparisons with Iron & Wine but I don't hear "the distance" that is often in Iron & Wine's music...it's hard to describe I guess...this just seems more intimate.
4. Almamy -- French Kiss
It's got a good beat you can dance to.
5a. The Unbearables -- The Darker Part
5b. The Unbearables -- The Loose Connection
Wow, this is awesome. If I had a Band of the Week category this would be it! Imagine a harder rocking Sufjan Stevens [with full band]. Or maybe Yes combined with the Ben Folds Five song "Steven's Last Night In Town"...how's that for a unique description?
It's Always Sunny In Philadelphia
Neglect
The polls make no sense. How does the addition of Sarah Palin make an Obama voter switch to McCain. Is it only about gender and nothing else? Karl Rove is criticizing McCain for false ads. This from the guy who spread rumors that McCain had an illegitimate black child. Obama is criticized for wanting children to know how to not get molested.
So for a while it's going to be just music from me...I feel like this guy from Get Your War On at the end of the day:
Saturday, September 13, 2008
Roosevelt, Hoover, Reagan & Carter
"Just keep running against Hoover. Whoever the Republicans put up, run against Hoover." -- FDR
FDR's advice lasted at least until 1968 or more accurately until 1980. Whoever the Republicans ran for president, link them back to Hoover. Not necessarily by name, but in rhetoric. Look at JFK's 1960 DNC acceptance speech. Hoover is only mentioned once in passing, but JFK does everything he can to link Nixon to the pre-Depression Republican presidents like McKinley, Harding, Coolidge and Hoover as a way of scaring voters. It was telling them, "Don't elect a guy just like the fatcats who let the Great Depression happen." Between 1932 and 1976 -- 12 elections -- the Republicans won four of them, two by running the greatest war hero since Grant (and maybe even since Washington himself) and one by running a man who talked like a Republican and governed like a Democrat. The Republicans couldn't overcome Hoover.
Reagan never put it as explicitly as FDR did, but he might as well have. No matter who the Democrats put up, run against Carter. Paint your opponent as a return to the oppressive welfare state, as a man who doesn't understand how ordinary Americans think and live. Use liberal as a epithet. Paint government as the problem and not the solution. And since 1980 -- 7 elections -- the Democrats have won only two. And they needed a man who governed like a moderate Republican to do it.* In essence, Bush I won by turning Dukakis into a Carter/Mondale liberal. And Bush II did the same to Gore and Kerry.
(I think Nixon and Clinton are very similar politicians. Most of the time when the comparison is made, it inevitably centers around their ethics. But they also had the same core set of political instincts. Both were governing in an era when their party and its ideology were unpopular. The idea of government involvement in our lives was as politically popular in Nixon's day as it was unpopular in Clinton's. In order to survive politically, Nixon's presidency was almost as liberal as LBJ's. The EPA and OSHA were created. Title IX was passed. He seriously considered a guaranteed income proposal. Clinton would survive by signing essentially conservative legislation like welfare reform, NAFTA and DOMA. Their instincts were all about doing whatever was necessary to maintain their popularity and political capital because neither possessed a core lodestar of governing. There is a 0% chance that Nixon or Clinton would have left Reyjavik empty-handed. The idea of selling out SDI in exchange for incredible concessions from the Russians, complete with the adoration it would have generated in the news media and international community would have been an easy deal for either of them to make. They always grasped for political capital, but didn't have an essential plan for how they wanted to use that capital. In that respect, both are the reverse George W. Bush, who governs much like his government spends. He spends political capital regardless of whether he actually possesses it.)
The FDR Doctrine of always running against Hoover ran its natural course for nearly 50 years. By the time Reagan was running against Carter, most of the electorate had never lived under Hoover. The recession was bad, but you couldn't scare voters by tapping into their Great Depression memories. Alan Greenspan, a man known for circumspection in his speech, declared that "capitalism is in crisis" in the 1970s and questioned whether America was going to remain a free-market economy. So the idea of cutting taxes, deregulating industries and encouraging entrepreneurship was welcome under an oppressive government bureaucracy.
But as the FDR Doctrine proves, you can't run against the same person forever. Eventually, demographics and the political climate catch up with you. There have been several books out recently by respected conservative thinkers about how the Republicans should pivot to account for this political reality. But faced with an opponent who is a singular political talent and who has the momentum on his side, McCain has doubled down on the Reagan Doctrine. He is trying as hard as he can to turn Obama into a conventional liberal -- to repeat what Bush/Atwater did to Dukakis 20 years ago. This ad, which is as clumsy as it is unfair, is exactly the type of ad designed to make Obama look like a conventional 1980s liberal.
If McCain wins, it proves that the Reagan Doctrine had one more win in it, even as George W. Bush had done everything he could to create a political environment to kill it, mutilate its body and have the corpse thrown into the river. But eventually, it will lose its effectiveness. If McCain loses, especially if he loses big, the Republicans will have at least four years to spend trying to regroup. I think David Brooks has the right idea that the conservative status quo (often a redundancy) is very much in decline, but for different reasons.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Songs of the Future: September 10th
Emmett Till. For information on this photo go here.
1. Carolina Liar -- I'm Not Over
This song seems to be a big hit here in the Kansas City area...Very catchy but I'm interested in hearing single #2.
2. Electric Umbilical Cord -- Dark Roads
This is sort of like She Wants Revenge and Soft Cell's "Tainted Love" combined.
3a. The Mojomatics -- Clean My Sins
3b. The Mojomatics -- Miss Me When I'm Gone
I've gushed about The Mojomatics previously and here are two more great tracks from Don't Pretend That You Know Me.
4. Bloc Party -- Talons
This is the 11th track to the Intimacy album that was released yesterday for those of us who bought the digital release.
The Wire
I had never seen a single episode of The Wire until this week believe it or not. I just never saw a DVD set on sale for cheap enough or thought about renting it from Netflix.
The first few episodes were fine but no better than Homicide [my favorite cop drama] or some of the best episodes of Davinci's Inquest or Jerry Orbach-era Law & Order. But then I came to Episode 4 "Old Cases" and this scene and things changed for the better. I get it now...how do things get better from here?
The Blind Boys of Alabama -- Down in the Hole [Theme song from The Wire]
This is a Tom Waits cover and on the The Wire: And All the Pieces Matter --Five Years of Music From The Wire.
Now That's What I'm Talking About
Word is out that the new MGMT album [a double album by the way] will be produced by The Chemical Brothers. I was slow to get into MGMT but I cannot wait for this as I have been a huge Chemical Brothers fan since I was certain that techno would sweep America in the late 90's.
The Chemical Brothers -- Midnight Madness
From the Midnight Madness single.
Monday, September 8, 2008
Huckabee Tidbit
He is most assuredly the only Republican ever to reference the Keanu Reeves movie Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure in a convention speech. And he is definitely the only one who can pull off rewriting the lyrics to "Cocaine," Eric Clapton's hit homage to drug abuse, into a campaign theme song called "McCain."It's only a matter of time until the cease and desist order...
Eric Clapton -- Cocaine
From the Crossroads box set.
Friday, September 5, 2008
Lykke Li
Lykke Li is Lykke Li Zachrisson, a Swede with a new album called Youth Novels which is produced [and co-written, by the way] by Bjorn Yttling of Peter Bjorn and John fame. I missed out on her debut EP Little Bit until recently and here are two tracks from that [these two also appear on the full length album].
Lykke Li -- Little Bit
Lykke Li -- Dance, Dance, Dance
OK Computer for $1.99
Noel's Top 10
Feeling Better
Thursday, September 4, 2008
Love Her or Hate Her
It Had To Be You.........
Lets assume for the sake of argument that John McCain was looking for the following traits in a vice-president:
--Female
--Acceptable to the conservative base
--Doesn't automatically alienate swing voters
--Good campaigner
--Seen as ready to be president if necessary (experience, etc.)
Now lets look at the candidates and see how they fare:
Carly Fiorina: She does seem like Mitt Romney in a pantsuit. But had McCain picked her, the press would have instantly focused on her departure from Hewlett-Packard. She has no governing experience, so the heartbeat questions would still be there. Conservatives would view her warily. She has been one of McCain's surrogates, but hasn't done such a terrific job that her campaign skills would stand out. If McCain is trying to avoid being the ticket of the rich, a CEO is your last choice for vice-president.
Meg Whitman: The conservative base would probably find Whitman to be acceptable. The scale of acceptance probably does something like: hatred, suspicion, lukewarm, acceptable, happy, ecstatic. Her eBay time was largely a success. Again, the heartbeat questions are going to be even louder for her than they were for Palin. And she does pose the problem of being one of the few people in this country who is richer than McCain's family.
Lisa Murkowski, Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins: No, no, no.
Liddy Dole: She's running for re-election, so picking her could cost the GOP a Senate seat. She has no ability to campaign off the cuff and was very wooden in her run for president. If she was 10 years younger, she would have been a more serious prospect.
Kay Bailey Hutchison: This is probably the only other really viable candidate. The base would veer between hatred and lukewarm on her selection. She is a good campaigner, but not one that excites voters. In some ways, she is a female John McCain: fairly solid conservative who crosses over just enough to give the party heartburn. The experience questions would be less likely to come up.
No one can deny that Sarah Palin added excitement to the ticket unlike any other. If McCain wanted to simultaneously make the base deliriously happy, enrage the other side and make swing voters go, "Hmmm," he could not have picked a better candidate. Peggy Noonan (among others) is right: this pick is dynamite. We just don't know if it is going to blow up on Obama or McCain.
What Could Have Been
Dear CS,
Besides maybe a lack of desire to be Vice President, why didn't McCain pick Carly Fiorina as Vice President? Although I disagree with about everything that comes out of her mouth, she seems to be pretty competent in a Mitt Romney sort of way.
Thanks,
Matt
OKC Thunder
The Kinks -- Johnny Thunder [Mono Version]
From the Village Green Preservation Society album.
Ween -- Old Man Thunder
From GodWeenSatan.
Poison Control Center -- Ride the Thunder
From the A Collage of Impression album.
Eddie Beram -- Riot in Thunder Alley
From the Death Proof soundtrack.
White Zombie -- Thunder Kiss '65
From the Past, Present & Future album.
Bob Dylan -- Thunder on the Mountain
From Modern Times.
Beck -- Thunder Peel
From the Odelay Deluxe Edition.
Bruce Springsteen -- Thunder Road
From the Greatest Hits album.
The Battle Royale -- Thunderbabe
From the Wake Up, Thunderbabe album.
Tom Jones -- Thunderball
From the James Bond Themes collection.
John Mellencamp -- Thundering Hearts
From the American Fool album.
AC/DC -- Thunderstruck
From The Razor's Edge album.
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Songs of the Future: 9/3/08
This song is from this much hyped group's self-titled EP.
2a. UNKLE -- Chemical [featuring Josh Homme from Queens of the Stone Age]
2b. UNKLE -- Kaned and Abel
Both tracks are from the new End Titles...Stories For Film album.
3. Shwayze -- California
A perfect combination of music & politics = Bill Clinton+ rap.
4. Titus Andronicus -- No Future
Imagine Bright Eyes fronting the Black Angels.
5a. Le Man Avec Les Lunettes -- Could I Call You Honey?
5b. Le Man Avec Les Lunettes -- Sybil Vane
5c. Le Man Avec Les Lunettes -- The Blogger and The Dandy
Translation: The Man with the Spectacles. Could be an Italian Dandy Warhols.
6a. Point Juncture, WA -- Kings Part II
6b. Point Juncture, WA -- Sioux Arrow
6c. Point Juncture, WA -- Sick on Sugar
These tracks are from the new album Heart to Elk.
Little Britain vs. America
Here are some clips from the new series: