Huckabee Tidbit

A little side note from an article on Mike Huckabee in Time:

He is most assuredly the only Republican ever to reference the Keanu Reeves movie Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure in a convention speech. And he is definitely the only one who can pull off rewriting the lyrics to "Cocaine," Eric Clapton's hit homage to drug abuse, into a campaign theme song called "McCain."

It's only a matter of time until the cease and desist order...

Eric Clapton -- Cocaine
From the Crossroads box set.

McCain / Pawlenty 2008???

Dear CS,

I don't know if you watch the McLaughlin Group on the weekends but this week Eleanor Clift from Newsweek said that Tim Pawlenty was going to be the Vice Presidential candidate for any of the Republican candidates...I almost spit out my cereal as I was watching and not only because she called him Wisconsin Governor Tim Pawlenty [poor Jim Doyle...so forgettable]. Can this be? Even Huckabee would pick him?

Are we going to see this September 4th?

Yours truly,

Matt

Radiohead -- Hunting Bears
From Amnesiac. Do fans consider Amnesiac to be the weakest Radiohead album or is it universally accepted that Pablo Honey is [and will always be] the weakest?

And they're coming down the homestretch...

Well, we are still no closer to knowing anything.

Unlike the post I linked to above, I am agnostic on South Carolina's power to decide the nominee this year. I say that with no small degree of sadness.

With three races in the books, the Republicans have come no closer to falling in love with a candidate. Every candidate has proven too flawed to make the essential sale. Huckabee was made for Iowa -- a folksy evangelical who likes to make it seem that he plays nice. We can declare McCain to be the President of New Hampshire. Mitt Romney's history and strengths (businessman who would know how to handle the federal bureaucracy) dovetailed perfectly with struggling Michigan. Each candidate did well in states that you would expect them to do well in and have proven utterly incapable of building on that to attract new voters to their flock. McCain can't get the conservative grassroots to forgive him for past trangressions and Romney can't convince them that his recognition of past transgressions is real and not political expediency. Huckabee can't anyone other than the evangelicals and Rudy can't get the evangelicals (or anyone else for that matter).

Fred is an interesting case. He is probably the most acceptable candidate to the grassroots. His appeal comes in person, where his demeanor shows that he is steady rather than lethargic. His is a campaign that you warm to slowly, but surely. It's a similar affliction that McCain faces: the candidate himself is the best way to convert voters, but you don't have the chance to run a truly retail campaign in a crowded primary field.

I am now agnostic on the idea that South Carolina will decide the presidency. It may serve as a way to winnow the field, but I don't even agree that Florida will decide. Until a candidate breaks through to really reach new supporters, each primary will be decided on demographics. I still would bet on Romney being the nominee because his money makes him best suited to win a war of attrition. The big money will come in for a candidate once they break through that wall, but until they do, Romney will best suited to win in states where air wars take precedence over retail politicking.

Huck

A lot has been said about Mike Huckabee being the most desirable Republican candidate for President by Democrats because they think he is the most beatable. In terms of desirability Mike Huckabee also has every other candidate beat on the baseball card front.

If you look at the listings of sellers and buyers there is a nice cross section. His autograph cards (shown above) are easily selling for more than $100 making them some of the most desirable auto cards of the set.

Radiohead -- House of Cards
This is from In Rainbows for which I am a marketing department's dream as I paid for the download and bought the physical album.

Predicting the Future, CS Edition

As the conservative half of our duo, here is my predictions for the Hawkeye State.

1. Obama
2. Hillary
3. Edwards
4. Biden

At this point, the smart money is on Obama in Iowa and I see no reason to go in another direction. He consistently tops the polls -- and I firmly believe that placement (what order the candidates are in) and trend are much more important than numbers. I don't think Hillary has righted herself enough to beat Obama, but she probably has done well enough to place above Edwards. Obama needs to hope for an Obama-Edwards-Clinton finish. Edwards and Clinton are battling for the same voters -- lower middle class, uneducated blue collars and middle class women -- and if Edwards is forced out early on (3rd place in IA and NH would make it nearly impossible for him to win), it frees up those voters for Hillary.

Republicans
1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. Thompson
4. McCain
5. Paul
6. Guiliani

This has turned into essentially two races: the race for first (Mitt v. Huck) and the race for third (McCain v. Fred). I think Huckabee peaked about two weeks too soon. The press has turned from adoring to inspecting (and he has a Clintonesque background -- substitute questionable ethics for questionable taste in lovers) and Romney has been doing a good job of hitting him hard. Huckabee's latest trick is taken straight out of the Paul Wellstone playbook (I couldn't find a link, but Wellstone's underdog 1990 campaign didn't have the money to run their famous "Looking for Rudy" ad, so they called a press conference and showed it there. The ad ended up being shown on newscasts across the state -- at no cost). That tactic is brilliant when you in Wellstone's situation: broke and the serious underdog. As the Iowa front-runner, it smacks of desperation. The Huckabee campaign would not do this if their internals showed their man with a solid lead in the state.

McCain has been making strides in the state and a third place finish in Iowa followed by a first in New Hampshire might even elevate him to front-runner status (assuming Huckabee can beat Romney in IA). Fred has gotten better on the trail -- probably too little, too late to actually win the nomination -- and has done a very good job situating himself as the truly conservative candidate. I think he edges McCain by one or two percentage points.

I'd love to have the readers put their predictions in the comments section -- now that you have heard from me and Blugold Matt.

Predicting the Future

It's time to put up or shut up in Iowa with the Caucuses around the corner next week...so here are my predictions for the Democratic and Republican results:

Democrats:

1. Obama
2. Edwards
3. Clinton
4. Biden

Obama finishes two percentage points above Edwards, who finishes two percentage points above Hillary. In the end, Edwards support is surprisingly high but overall, not much is determined. All three candidates declare victory and we are on to New Hampshire. Biden has a surprisingly strong finish...maybe 9% and survives to fight another day in New Hampshire...

Republicans:

1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. Paul
4. Giuliani
5. McCain
6. Thompson

The surprise here is that Huckabee wins by 8% and Paul finishes third by only 1%. Romney is on the downward slide into the "what could have been" category of American politics, right next to Howard Dean. Giuliani comes in fourth but his campaign is unfazed by it due to the already low expectations. Thompson's campaign is effectively over and McCain must win New Hampshire to stay alive.

Regina Spektor -- The Ghost of Corporate Future
From her debut album Soviet Kitsch.

Reading the Palmetto Leaves

Iowa and New Hampshire will be virtually meaningless in determining the Republican nominee for President in 2008.

*Pause*

Hopefully David Yepsen will be able to stop breathing into a paper bag long enough to join the Union Leader in kicking my ass. But its true.

Consider where we are right now. Huckabee has gone from also-ran to contender, but hasn't made the sale. McCain is moving to the left to grab New Hampshire independents. Fred has yet to catch fire, but the potential exists for him to do well if he would ever actually...run. And Rudy still has a national lead and is praying for Feb. 5th to come around ASAP. Meanwhile, Romney is Romney, being the safe, cautious pick that everyone accepts, but no one loves. He is in danger of being the Steve Forbes (2000 edition) of this cycle: the candidate who has all of the right positions to unite the social and economic conservatives, but whose flip-flopping and slightly off-putting personality have hindered his progress.

Iowa looks to be two separate races. There is the race between Huckabee and Romney for the top spot, with Huck holding a consistent lead. And there is the race for third, which Fred will probably win. If the race generally holds to form, Huckabee will beat Romney by 3 to 7 points, with Fred at about 12-15% and everyone else in single digits. The post-race spin will revolve around whether Huck beat Mitt by enough. If the margin is more than 5, Huckabee probably gets the winners spin. Less than 5 and Romney will be hailed as the winner for getting it so close (cf. Bill Clinton in New Hampshire in 1992).

New Hampshire will be similar. McCain and Romney will battle it out for the top spot, with another race forming for third place. McCain needs to win it or come in a very close second or his campaign is toast. If he can't revive the 2000 Granite State magic, he has no chance of being the nominee. Meanwhile, it will be up to Huckabee to prove that he can win over more than just evangelicals while Fred needs to keep his momentum going. Rudy needs a third-place finish to give him any kind of momentum before Feb. 5th. His national lead is only good if his campaign gets some oxygen before then.

Lets assume that Huckabee beats Romney by 5 to 7 points in Iowa (with Fred at 15 and the rest in single digits) and McCain and Romney have a photo finish in New Hampshire, with Huckabee third and Rudy fourth, both well back of McCain and Mitt. What do we know? Huckabee isn't a flash in the pan, but he hasn't shown the ability to pivot and expand his reach. McCain can still win over the independents, but hasn't proven he can win over the rank-and-file. Romney is the only candidate to post top-two finishes in both states, but hasn't been able to close the deal. Fred is still searching for the lightning to get his campaign going and Rudy still hasn't shown an ability to actually be competitive in an actual primary.

How is that any different from what we know right now?

South Carolina is where any of them can win the nomination. That is its history -- South Carolina selects the Republican nominee. It was Bush's firewall against McCain in 2000. It is where Bob Dole recovered from losing the NH primary to Pitchfork Pat Buchanan. It is where George Bush the Elder showed that Buchanan would not be a threat after his performance in NH in 1992. And the Elder took over the 50% of the vote there in 1988, using his comeback win in NH and the SC blowout to ensure the nomination. He knocked Bob Dole off balance with the NH and drove a stake through his chances in SC. Reagan beat back the Thurmond-endorsed front-runner John Connally in 1980 in SC. There is a reason that the Palmetto State is so early in the process -- Lee Atwater put it there to serve as a market correction. SC takes in the results of IA and NH and sorts them out.

If Romney wins South Carolina, it's over. He will have shown the ability to win over Christian conservatives and with his strong showings in IA and NH, combined with his money, he will cruise. If McCain wins, it shows that 2000 was ancient history and he can win over the base. Without a follow-up victory, New Hampshire success won't mean a thing for McCain. If Huckabee wins there, he will have shown that his persona works in places other than Iowa, where they like their politics nice. South Carolina is not for the faint of heart. If Fred does well, it shows that his campaign has staying power. And if Rudy can get a top-3 finish here, not only does it show that he might be acceptable to the base, but it gives him some much needed momentum for Feb. 5.

With the notable exception of Romney, most candidates are either very strong in Iowa (Huck, Fred) or New Hampshire (McCain). They might be well served by taking resources out of the other state and pouring them into South Carolina -- they need to show that they can win elsewhere. There are only five days between Iowa and New Hampshire, which might not be enough time for Iowa momentum to really translate into votes. But there are 11 days between New Hampshire and South Carolina, which is more than enough time for the Palmetto State GOP to take everything in.

In the end, I think Romney is the nominee. He seems to be everyone's second choice, which isn't a bad place to be. He is almost always in the top 2 of any early primary state and South Carolina might be where the GOP base looks at the rest of its choices and decides to firewall for Romney.

The one way that Romney could get knocked off is in a Gephardt-Dean mudsling. South Carolina will be desperation time for every candidate, with the possible exception of National Strategy Man. With Romney as the putative front-runner, Fred or McCain or even Rudy might direct all of their fire on Romney, figuring that if they can knock him off, the path to the nomination is much clearer. In that environment, I don't see Romney just taking it. His campaign strikes me as one that would not only return fire, but would completely ignore proportional response.

Lets also not forget that Romney might be the least-liked candidate in the race, among the other candidates. McCain has said nice things about all of the candidates except Mitt. And I don't think he is alone in this. Could McCain or Fred or Rudy -- who seem to have a bit of a mutual admiration society and non-aggression pact amongst themselves -- decide that, with their campaign flailing, they will go kamikaze and take down Romney in the process? It might be the only way to keep Romney from getting the nomination.

Could this all change? Definitely. There are rumblings out of Iowa that Fred might be poised for a surge circa John Edwards in 2004. A week in politics IS an eternity. But with the notable exception of Huckabee, this race has been playing out to form. Absent someone catching the political lightning or an unexpected event turning the race upside down, I don't see that changing.

Chuck Norris & Mike Huckabee

Not much more needs to be added to this video:



Chuck Berry -- Johnny B. Goode
From The Definitive Collection.

Mike Patton -- Six Pack (Blag Flag Cover)
From the Rise Above: 24 Blag Flag Songs to Benefit the West Memphis Three compilation.

The Making of the Nominee, 2008*

* = Republican-side

As the conservative side of this duo, I feel compelled to cover the GOP race for president. We have a motley crew of candidates, none of whom really excite anyone. Here is the path that each can take to become the 44th President of the United States or the path to joining the ranks of Harold Stassen, Pete DuPont, Bob Dornan and Gary Bauer. And with the help of Blugold Matt, we have thought of a campaign theme song for each.

Rudy Guiliani
Best case: A top-3 finish in Iowa (with Huckabee doing well and cutting into any Romney momentum) is followed with a win in New Hampshire. The momentum carries over into S.C. and the rest of the dominoes fall. Hillary wins in Iowa, so conservatives stick with Rudy as their best chance to taking down their most feared candidate. Bernie Kerik takes a plea deal in April or so, ensuring that he stays out of the headlines during the general election. Rudy personally beheads Osama on live television before the first debate.

Worst case: Romney cruises (7+ point victory) in Iowa. Hillary finishes behind a surging Barack Obama and no longer looks like a shoo-in for the nomination. McCain rises up for one last stand in N.H., cutting into some voters who would go for Rudy. With Romney, Huckabee and McCain fighting it out, Rudy's momentum and national lead dwindle away. Pat Robertson doesn't offer him a job as a 700 Club correspondent.

Song: You May Be Right by Billy Joel
You may be right. I might be crazy. But it just may be a lunatic that you're looking for.

Mitt Romney
Best case: Very similiar to Rudy's worst case. Huckabee's momentum gets dented and ends up sharing votes with Fred, ensuring that neither get off the ground. An easier than expected win in Iowa, combined with Hillary winning Iowa with relative ease, ensures that Romney gets the Time/Newsweek covers and the media attention and the ensuing boomlet rachets up the NH numbers. McCain gets second in NH, removing Rudy as a serious contender and McCain's lack of money means that he can't seriously compete across the country.

Worst case: A loss in Iowa. Anything less than first in Iowa makes the rest of his strategy meaningless. Whoever beat him would have all of the momentum. If it's Rudy, it means he is invincible. Anyone else probably becomes the defacto choice of the base, leaving Romney in the cold.

Song: The New American Way by the Dropkick Murphys
Do you know what we're fighting for? I know in an instant I could lose everything I'm working toward.

Fred Thompson
Best case: Press turns on Huckabee, digging up dirt from his gubernatorial days, sending him to the back of the pack and Thompson picks up that support. Romney ends up feuding with either McCain or Rudy, turning off voters. A perfect folksy moment in a late debate -- the kind of clip that gets played ad inifintum -- vaults him to a top-3 Iowa finish and establishes him as the conservative favorite. America gets its best looking First Lady since Dolley Madison. Even though he is considered a top tier candidate, I really think his chances depend almost entirely on other candidates faltering. He doesn't control his own destiny as much as he is relying on being everyone's second-favorite candidate. And he's done nothing to dispel the notion that he wants to be president, but he isn't really willing to do the work -- he wants a coronation instead of a nomination.

Worst case: Huckabee continues to shine and Fred muddles his way to several fourth and fifth place finishes before agreeing to return to Law and Order.

Song: Beautiful Loser by Bob Seger
He'll never make any enemies, enemies, no. He won't complain if he's caught in a freeze. He'll always ask, he'll always say please. (Stacy's Mom was the runner-up pick).

John McCain
Best case: A replay of John Kerry, circa 2004. He keeps climbing in Iowa with several strong performances. Pat Robertson : Rudy Guiliani :: Al Gore : Howard Dean (the endorsement that marked the high-water point of a doomed campaign). Rudy and Romney turn on each other as McCain escapes unscathed because the other campaigns have still left him for dead. A top-2 Iowa finish is followed by a re-creation of the 2000 magic in NH. Fred, who has always liked McCain, takes one for the team and goes nuclear on Romney in a last ditch effort to become relevant again in the race. The ensuing slime only helps McCain, who cruises the rest of the way.

Worst case: A replay of Joe Lieberman, circa 2004. No money equals bad Iowa finish and he has no momentum to succeed in NH and is out of the race before Jan. 10. Full disclosure: I am supporting McCain for the nomination. Even though I think the case for McCain is even stronger than it was in 2000, it is impossible to deny that the mojo has not carried over. So my song choice is less reflective of what I think of the man than the reality of his struggling campaign.

Song: After The Thrill is Gone by the Eagles
Time passes and you must move on, Half the distance takes you twice as long. So you keep on singing for the sake of the song.


Mike Huckabee
Best case: Continues to peel voters away from Fred, allowing himself to take the mantle as the charismatic Southern conservative in the race. McCain, Rudy and Romney train fire on each other in Iowa, allowing Huckabee's optimistic outlook to appeal to weary voters. A stunning upset win in Iowa gets him the Time/Newsweek cover/60 Minutes profile/evening news interviews and money starts pouring in. He has a top 3 finish in NH and SC comes out for the southern favorite.

Worst case: Basically the same as Fred. Thompson rises back up (stealing away Chuck Norris' endorsement), Huckabee finishes no better than 4th in Iowa and NH and goes on the lecture circuit. Not being selected as vice president causes him to seek into a deep depression, which he attempts to cure with biscuits and gravy, fried egg sammiches with bacon and a pint of Ben and Jerry's for dessert.

Song: Hold on Hope by Guided by Voices
Everybody's got a hold on hope. It's the last thing holding me.

Ron Paul
Best case: His money and poll numbers continue to rise. He pulls off a stunning top-3 finish in iconoclastic New Hampshire and even wins a few primaries after the nominee has all but been decided. Is given a primetime speaking slot at the convention in the hopes he won't run on a 3rd party ticket.

Worst case: He makes a major gaffe that causes his rational supporters (i.e. not 9/11 Truthers or black helicopter-ites) to abandon him and becomes a minor footnote. The United States does not return to the gold standard, giving William Jennings Bryan a small smirk from beyond the grave.

Song: Crashing Your Party by Phantom Planet
I've come to crash your party. And no, you can't decline. I've come to crash your party, girl. Cause you ruined mine.


Duncan Hunter
Best case: Finishes 5th or so in a few primaries, makes a name for himself and becomes the defacto Secretary of Defense nominee if a Republican wins.

Worst case: No one knows who he is after finishing 6th or so in a few primaries and he becomes a lobbyist for some defense contractors.

Song: Who Are You? by the Who.
Who are you, I really wanna know.

Tom Tancredo
Best case: All of the other candidates are killed in the 24 hours leading up to the Iowa primary and Tancredo wins by default. The same happens in the general election, giving us President Tancredo. Americans cross the Mexican border in droves, hoping to live and work illegally in a better nation than the one they came from.

Worst case: For everyone other than Tom Tancredo and Pat Buchanan, the best case scenario is the worst case scenario.

Song: America by Neil Diamond
On the boats and on the planes, they're coming to America.

Right idea, wrong candidate

Politico's Jonathan Martin has the right idea when he compares Mike Huckabee to a previous campaign. He just picked the wrong candidate to compare Huckabee to.

Huckabee, despite the generally positive press coverage, is not the equivalent of 2000 John McCain. John McCain was loved by the press corps for his availability -- being willing to b.s. on that bus -- his integrity and because he was such a contrast to Bush (record-breaking fundraising vs. shoestring campaign, former Vietnam POW v. Texas National Guard) and the only chance to make the GOP race competitive. Huckabee might be a press darling, but it isn't for the same reasons as McCain.

The former Arkansas governor is really the equivalent of 2004 John Edwards. Both are running in crowded fields to a generally depressed base. Much like the Dems 4 years ago, the Republicans aren't finding anyone they have fallen in love with, so they'll settle for a winner. Huckabee, much like Edwards, is a stronger candidate than his resume would suggest. Other than losing massive amounts of weight, Huckabee never did anything as governor that would distinguish him on a national stage, much as Edwards' Senate career is largely forgettable. Huckabee is an engaging speaker -- when you see him on TV, it is hard not to like him. And much like Edwards, he keeps going up in the Iowa polls at exactly the right time.

And the biggest comparison between the two: you watch them and feel like they are running for vice president. Unlike McCain -- who is probably temperamentally unsuited to the vice-presidency -- Huckabee has run the campaign of a man who wants to get the No. 2 nod. Much like Edwards, Huckabee has refrained from unloading the heavy artillery on the primary opposition. He has criticized Fred Thompson, but Thompson is the only top candidate who wouldn't be helped by having Huckabee as his veep. And Fred started it. Remember that Kerry and Edwards climbed to the top in Iowa by avoiding the Dean-Gephardt napalm war.

GOP audiences seem to love Huckabee, but there is a feeling of, "He would make a great vice president" that surrounds him. He would be a perfect running mate for Rudy or Romney or McCain to shore up support with the base and his folksy style would be the perfect velvet glove for attacks on the opposing ticket. Sound vaguely familiar from four years ago?

This Day and Age: Second Place Victory



For more on This Day and Age, see here.

Juicy Bit

The Wall Street Journal editorial page has some not nice things to say about Mike Huckabee...well, being compared to Bill Clinton is considered "not nice" in some circles.

Here is the juicy bit:

"During a visit to the Journal last spring, Mr. Huckabee joked that one of his biggest challenges is that "like Bill Clinton I hail from Hope, Arkansas, and not every Republican wants to take a chance like that again." But it's Mr. Huckabee who is creating the doubts. "He's just like Bill Clinton in that he practices management by news cycle," a former top Huckabee aide told me. "As with Clinton there was no long-term planning, just putting out fires on a daily basis. One thing I'll guarantee is that won't lead to competent conservative governance."

Iowa Straw Poll

The USA Today has a very interesting breakdown of the dollars spent per vote by the Republican candidates in the Iowa Straw Poll:

• Third-place finisher Sam Brownback says he spent about $325,000 to win his
2,192 votes. That's $148.27 for each vote.

• Second-place finisher Mike Huckabee spent about $150,000 and received 2,587 votes. That's $57.98 per vote.

• Winner Mitt Romney has not said how much he spent. The reporting in this
Washington Post article suggests at least $2 million and possibly more than twice that much. Assuming $2 million for 4,516 votes, that's $442.87 per vote. But it could top $1,000.

The exciting news for people interested in politics either left or right is the surprising showing by Mike Huckabee. I don't know much about him, outside of the fact he lost a ton of weight. Here is Governor Huckabee on the Daily Show: