Thompson Out

So Fred Thompson dropped out of the Presidential race and one has to ask why did he even bother? Did he really think that Republicans hated the other candidates so much that he would be elected by default?

In the end he lost his sweet acting job on Law & Order [although I think the series jumped the shark when he joined the cast], his wife is now a punch line for trophy wife jokes, and I'm not sure how many people would hire Fred to do any political consulting for them from now on...

And possibly worst of all, Mitt Romney is now leading in the polls in Florida.

Here is a scary Mary Matalin clip justifying why Fred skipped a New Hampshire debate to go on The Tonight Show...I wonder if she would thinking differently now?

Also this clip has a very, very, very scary sexually over toned comment to her husband James Carville.



Ryan Adams -- Now That You're Gone
This is from Disc 1 of the Cold Roses album.

Wilco -- Wishful Thinking (Live)
This is from the live Wilco double album Kicking Television.

And they're coming down the homestretch...

Well, we are still no closer to knowing anything.

Unlike the post I linked to above, I am agnostic on South Carolina's power to decide the nominee this year. I say that with no small degree of sadness.

With three races in the books, the Republicans have come no closer to falling in love with a candidate. Every candidate has proven too flawed to make the essential sale. Huckabee was made for Iowa -- a folksy evangelical who likes to make it seem that he plays nice. We can declare McCain to be the President of New Hampshire. Mitt Romney's history and strengths (businessman who would know how to handle the federal bureaucracy) dovetailed perfectly with struggling Michigan. Each candidate did well in states that you would expect them to do well in and have proven utterly incapable of building on that to attract new voters to their flock. McCain can't get the conservative grassroots to forgive him for past trangressions and Romney can't convince them that his recognition of past transgressions is real and not political expediency. Huckabee can't anyone other than the evangelicals and Rudy can't get the evangelicals (or anyone else for that matter).

Fred is an interesting case. He is probably the most acceptable candidate to the grassroots. His appeal comes in person, where his demeanor shows that he is steady rather than lethargic. His is a campaign that you warm to slowly, but surely. It's a similar affliction that McCain faces: the candidate himself is the best way to convert voters, but you don't have the chance to run a truly retail campaign in a crowded primary field.

I am now agnostic on the idea that South Carolina will decide the presidency. It may serve as a way to winnow the field, but I don't even agree that Florida will decide. Until a candidate breaks through to really reach new supporters, each primary will be decided on demographics. I still would bet on Romney being the nominee because his money makes him best suited to win a war of attrition. The big money will come in for a candidate once they break through that wall, but until they do, Romney will best suited to win in states where air wars take precedence over retail politicking.

Predicting the Future, CS Edition

As the conservative half of our duo, here is my predictions for the Hawkeye State.

1. Obama
2. Hillary
3. Edwards
4. Biden

At this point, the smart money is on Obama in Iowa and I see no reason to go in another direction. He consistently tops the polls -- and I firmly believe that placement (what order the candidates are in) and trend are much more important than numbers. I don't think Hillary has righted herself enough to beat Obama, but she probably has done well enough to place above Edwards. Obama needs to hope for an Obama-Edwards-Clinton finish. Edwards and Clinton are battling for the same voters -- lower middle class, uneducated blue collars and middle class women -- and if Edwards is forced out early on (3rd place in IA and NH would make it nearly impossible for him to win), it frees up those voters for Hillary.

Republicans
1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. Thompson
4. McCain
5. Paul
6. Guiliani

This has turned into essentially two races: the race for first (Mitt v. Huck) and the race for third (McCain v. Fred). I think Huckabee peaked about two weeks too soon. The press has turned from adoring to inspecting (and he has a Clintonesque background -- substitute questionable ethics for questionable taste in lovers) and Romney has been doing a good job of hitting him hard. Huckabee's latest trick is taken straight out of the Paul Wellstone playbook (I couldn't find a link, but Wellstone's underdog 1990 campaign didn't have the money to run their famous "Looking for Rudy" ad, so they called a press conference and showed it there. The ad ended up being shown on newscasts across the state -- at no cost). That tactic is brilliant when you in Wellstone's situation: broke and the serious underdog. As the Iowa front-runner, it smacks of desperation. The Huckabee campaign would not do this if their internals showed their man with a solid lead in the state.

McCain has been making strides in the state and a third place finish in Iowa followed by a first in New Hampshire might even elevate him to front-runner status (assuming Huckabee can beat Romney in IA). Fred has gotten better on the trail -- probably too little, too late to actually win the nomination -- and has done a very good job situating himself as the truly conservative candidate. I think he edges McCain by one or two percentage points.

I'd love to have the readers put their predictions in the comments section -- now that you have heard from me and Blugold Matt.

The Making of the Nominee, 2008*

* = Republican-side

As the conservative side of this duo, I feel compelled to cover the GOP race for president. We have a motley crew of candidates, none of whom really excite anyone. Here is the path that each can take to become the 44th President of the United States or the path to joining the ranks of Harold Stassen, Pete DuPont, Bob Dornan and Gary Bauer. And with the help of Blugold Matt, we have thought of a campaign theme song for each.

Rudy Guiliani
Best case: A top-3 finish in Iowa (with Huckabee doing well and cutting into any Romney momentum) is followed with a win in New Hampshire. The momentum carries over into S.C. and the rest of the dominoes fall. Hillary wins in Iowa, so conservatives stick with Rudy as their best chance to taking down their most feared candidate. Bernie Kerik takes a plea deal in April or so, ensuring that he stays out of the headlines during the general election. Rudy personally beheads Osama on live television before the first debate.

Worst case: Romney cruises (7+ point victory) in Iowa. Hillary finishes behind a surging Barack Obama and no longer looks like a shoo-in for the nomination. McCain rises up for one last stand in N.H., cutting into some voters who would go for Rudy. With Romney, Huckabee and McCain fighting it out, Rudy's momentum and national lead dwindle away. Pat Robertson doesn't offer him a job as a 700 Club correspondent.

Song: You May Be Right by Billy Joel
You may be right. I might be crazy. But it just may be a lunatic that you're looking for.

Mitt Romney
Best case: Very similiar to Rudy's worst case. Huckabee's momentum gets dented and ends up sharing votes with Fred, ensuring that neither get off the ground. An easier than expected win in Iowa, combined with Hillary winning Iowa with relative ease, ensures that Romney gets the Time/Newsweek covers and the media attention and the ensuing boomlet rachets up the NH numbers. McCain gets second in NH, removing Rudy as a serious contender and McCain's lack of money means that he can't seriously compete across the country.

Worst case: A loss in Iowa. Anything less than first in Iowa makes the rest of his strategy meaningless. Whoever beat him would have all of the momentum. If it's Rudy, it means he is invincible. Anyone else probably becomes the defacto choice of the base, leaving Romney in the cold.

Song: The New American Way by the Dropkick Murphys
Do you know what we're fighting for? I know in an instant I could lose everything I'm working toward.

Fred Thompson
Best case: Press turns on Huckabee, digging up dirt from his gubernatorial days, sending him to the back of the pack and Thompson picks up that support. Romney ends up feuding with either McCain or Rudy, turning off voters. A perfect folksy moment in a late debate -- the kind of clip that gets played ad inifintum -- vaults him to a top-3 Iowa finish and establishes him as the conservative favorite. America gets its best looking First Lady since Dolley Madison. Even though he is considered a top tier candidate, I really think his chances depend almost entirely on other candidates faltering. He doesn't control his own destiny as much as he is relying on being everyone's second-favorite candidate. And he's done nothing to dispel the notion that he wants to be president, but he isn't really willing to do the work -- he wants a coronation instead of a nomination.

Worst case: Huckabee continues to shine and Fred muddles his way to several fourth and fifth place finishes before agreeing to return to Law and Order.

Song: Beautiful Loser by Bob Seger
He'll never make any enemies, enemies, no. He won't complain if he's caught in a freeze. He'll always ask, he'll always say please. (Stacy's Mom was the runner-up pick).

John McCain
Best case: A replay of John Kerry, circa 2004. He keeps climbing in Iowa with several strong performances. Pat Robertson : Rudy Guiliani :: Al Gore : Howard Dean (the endorsement that marked the high-water point of a doomed campaign). Rudy and Romney turn on each other as McCain escapes unscathed because the other campaigns have still left him for dead. A top-2 Iowa finish is followed by a re-creation of the 2000 magic in NH. Fred, who has always liked McCain, takes one for the team and goes nuclear on Romney in a last ditch effort to become relevant again in the race. The ensuing slime only helps McCain, who cruises the rest of the way.

Worst case: A replay of Joe Lieberman, circa 2004. No money equals bad Iowa finish and he has no momentum to succeed in NH and is out of the race before Jan. 10. Full disclosure: I am supporting McCain for the nomination. Even though I think the case for McCain is even stronger than it was in 2000, it is impossible to deny that the mojo has not carried over. So my song choice is less reflective of what I think of the man than the reality of his struggling campaign.

Song: After The Thrill is Gone by the Eagles
Time passes and you must move on, Half the distance takes you twice as long. So you keep on singing for the sake of the song.


Mike Huckabee
Best case: Continues to peel voters away from Fred, allowing himself to take the mantle as the charismatic Southern conservative in the race. McCain, Rudy and Romney train fire on each other in Iowa, allowing Huckabee's optimistic outlook to appeal to weary voters. A stunning upset win in Iowa gets him the Time/Newsweek cover/60 Minutes profile/evening news interviews and money starts pouring in. He has a top 3 finish in NH and SC comes out for the southern favorite.

Worst case: Basically the same as Fred. Thompson rises back up (stealing away Chuck Norris' endorsement), Huckabee finishes no better than 4th in Iowa and NH and goes on the lecture circuit. Not being selected as vice president causes him to seek into a deep depression, which he attempts to cure with biscuits and gravy, fried egg sammiches with bacon and a pint of Ben and Jerry's for dessert.

Song: Hold on Hope by Guided by Voices
Everybody's got a hold on hope. It's the last thing holding me.

Ron Paul
Best case: His money and poll numbers continue to rise. He pulls off a stunning top-3 finish in iconoclastic New Hampshire and even wins a few primaries after the nominee has all but been decided. Is given a primetime speaking slot at the convention in the hopes he won't run on a 3rd party ticket.

Worst case: He makes a major gaffe that causes his rational supporters (i.e. not 9/11 Truthers or black helicopter-ites) to abandon him and becomes a minor footnote. The United States does not return to the gold standard, giving William Jennings Bryan a small smirk from beyond the grave.

Song: Crashing Your Party by Phantom Planet
I've come to crash your party. And no, you can't decline. I've come to crash your party, girl. Cause you ruined mine.


Duncan Hunter
Best case: Finishes 5th or so in a few primaries, makes a name for himself and becomes the defacto Secretary of Defense nominee if a Republican wins.

Worst case: No one knows who he is after finishing 6th or so in a few primaries and he becomes a lobbyist for some defense contractors.

Song: Who Are You? by the Who.
Who are you, I really wanna know.

Tom Tancredo
Best case: All of the other candidates are killed in the 24 hours leading up to the Iowa primary and Tancredo wins by default. The same happens in the general election, giving us President Tancredo. Americans cross the Mexican border in droves, hoping to live and work illegally in a better nation than the one they came from.

Worst case: For everyone other than Tom Tancredo and Pat Buchanan, the best case scenario is the worst case scenario.

Song: America by Neil Diamond
On the boats and on the planes, they're coming to America.

I'm Suprised

I am surprised by the size of the beatdown that Hillary gave Barack this quarter ($27 million total vs. $20 million total). When you look at money just for the primary election, things get a little closer ($22 million for Hillary vs. $19 million for Barack). I really thought Hillary had tapped out her donors in the first few quarters and that Barack's "lots of small donors" trend would continue and expand...I haven't seen yet what Barack had for total number of donors but Hillary claims to have added 100,000 new donors...

Poor John Edwards brought in 7 million dollars...

I am eagerly awaiting the Republican totals...I think Mitt & Rudy will be fairly close with Fred Thompson raising less than John Edwards....

Guilty Simpson -- Money Motivated Movements

This song is from the Adult Swim compilation Chrome Children Volume 2 get it here.