Things Learned Tonight

--Chuck Todd nailed his audition for the Meet the Press hosting gig.

--No matter what a person has done in their life, they are still allowed to give their opinions on election night [e.g. Tom DeLay]

--Next to Obama winning, I am most happy that the buses will continue to run in Lawrence! YES!

--Hologram reporters rule!

--You know, re-watching that last John McCain appearance on Saturday Night Live, I feel really bad for John McCain...If only he could have been like that the entire time...full of humor, the ability to laugh at himself. I wish it could have been different for him...if he just could have beaten Bush in 2000.

The Worst Possible Outcome

I have been tossing this idea around in my head: three major twists of political history from 2000 until 2008 have worked to keep John McCain out of the White House.

Consider the following counterfactuals:

Al Gore wins Florida in 2000 in a disputed recount: Now conservatives are angry. Just when they have a decent shot at the White House, Rove/Bush screw it up. Another four years in the wilderness. And they have the feeling they were robbed. 9/11 still occurs, because the biggest failure was the lack of imagination to see what al-Qaeda could do and that failure crossed party lines. In the months that follow 9/11, Republicans begin the drum beat for investigations, etc. But unlike actual history, the attack is blamed almost entirely on the Democrats. There is no "My Pet Goat" moment for the Republicans. President Bush didn't receive the August 16, 2001 PDB briefing -- President Gore did. And the inability to turn the tragedy into a bipartisan failure -- President Gore had been a top government official since 1993 -- dooms the Democrats on national security issues. (This counterfactual shows that most of the blame arguments post-9/11 were nothing more than political CYA; I have no doubt that this counterfactual world has Sean Hannity mentioning the PDB every 8.2 seconds). The Republicans turn to McCain, who has the national security credentials to credibly and savagely attack Gore. With the full backing of the base, he could have run to the center and been the relaxed candidate that nearly took down Bush in 2000. And McCain is not facing the loose, relaxed Gore we see today. He is facing the wooden Bill Clinton-lite who is barely able to get out of his own way.

John Kerry squeaks out a win in Ohio in 2004: Again, you have to remember that the President Kerry that would be running for re-election in 2008 is not the John Kerry you saw on Meet The Press this weekend. Think about the awkward politician who votes for it before he votes against it. As Iraq deteriorates -- because there is no way that President Kerry doubles down in Iraq with a surge in 2007 the way President Bush did -- the blame game begins. Right now, Iraq can be squarely laid at the feet of the Republicans. Beyond the initial authorization vote, Democrats can escape all political repercussions for how well/poorly Iraq goes. But in this counterfactual world, the election of President Kerry gives the Democrats a political stake in the matter. And the question rings out, 'Who lost Iraq?" (Again, it is assumed that counterfactual Sean Hannity will claim that we were doing fine in 2004, President Kerry cut and ran, Democrats are weak on national defense, Democrats favor surrender, etc.). The huge Democrat gains of the 2006 election? Since they were a reaction to President Bush's leadership, they are gone. While President Kerry would not have been quite as incompetent on Katrina, I doubt that he would have had enough time (roughly 8-9 months) to make substantial changes to the Bush-era disaster preparedness scenarios. And he would have been hamstrung by the Stooges-like leadership of Blanco and Nagin. The Republicans turn to McCain, who has the national security credentials to credibly and savagely attack Kerry. With the full backing of the base, he could have run to the center and been the relaxed candidate that nearly took down Bush in 2000.

Hillary Clinton beats Obama in the primaries: This would be a far different race if it was McCain v. Clinton. McCain would have never needed to shore up his base. Almost everything that has turned off open-minded voters about John McCain has been an effort to shore up the base and guarantee that they come out to vote. Sarah Palin, William Ayers, the constant attack ads, socialism, etc. Steve Schmidt, Nichole Wallace, etc. are the JV team of the Bush/Cheney 04 campaign. BC04 won by getting out more Republicans than Kerry got out Democrats. KE04 hit every metric a D would want to hit in Ohio and still lost. But they are trying to replicate that magic in a campaign where it is doomed to fail. They haven't sufficiently scared the base about Obama and have turned off voters in the process. But with Hillary, the base would be sufficiently scared. They may not especially like McCain, they may not like the idea of an Obama presidency, but the idea of President Hillary Clinton sends chills down the spine of every Republican. I think a lot of the Hail Marys (Palin, suspending the campaign, etc.) wouldn't have been necessary, because you don't need to give the base any more reasons to vote. With the full backing of the base, he could have run to the center and been the relaxed candidate that nearly took down Bush in 2000. And Hillary would have had to spend time repairing a war within her base as the Obama supporters threaten to vote McCain or stay home. That would have forced her to the left, playing into McCain's hands.

Instead, McCain has to wait until 2008 and draw the worst possible opponent for his style. Politics is a lot like boxing -- styles matter when it comes to matchups. McCain's political style has been to vote with the party on plenty of issues, but when he doesn't agree, he makes sure everyone knows about it. He always tries to position himself as the non-ideological crusading independent. In all three counterfactuals, he would have been able to position himself as the Washington outsider, condemn business as usual in the capitol and keep his normal style without losing the base. But instead, he faced a candidate who was well-positioned to move to the center, had a strong committed base behind him and who didn't enter the race with the Republican base ready for blood. McCain faced a boxer with similar skills in a match where all of the externals of the political environment were for the other guy. And he is going to go down in a Bob Dole-like defeat as a result.

Election Day has arrived

Long time no talk, etc., blah, blah, blah.

Matt didn't post about the election for the sake of his mental health. I didn't post because I didn't have anything new to say. But now that Christmas Election Day is upon us, time for some predictions.



In the 7 key Senate races:
Alaska: Begich by 6
Georgia: Martin wins with less than 50%, forcing a December runoff that Chambliss wins.
Kentucky: McConnell by 4
Minnesota: Coleman by 1
New Hampshire: Shaheen by 9
North Carolina: Hagan by 9
Oregon: Merkley by 2

I'd love to hear Matt's predictions.

One quick question

After the first 2000 debate, which Al Gore won on substance but committed hari-kari on style, did the "dial" groups that the networks love reflect that?

By comparison, the first 2004 debate was a complete knock out for Kerry in every possible way.* Bush's debate coach considered the worst beatdown in presidential debate history as it was occuring.

* The two biggest victories in terms of just annihilating your opponents were Kerry v. Bush I in 04 and Mondale v. Reagan I in 84. Notice that neither "victor" won the ultimate prize.

My Mid-Debate Thoughts

Yes! Two mentions of Latvia!

Things aren't going as well as I hoped for Obama...I hadn't really expected that we would talk so much about cutting spending after both candidates pretty much agreed they would support a $700 billion financial crisis bill...if cutting spending actually matters to voters then McCain will benefit from that based on his debate showing...

My mid-debate reaction

John McCain is either winning, ala John Kerry in the first 2004 debate, as being forceful, pointed and sharp. Or he is losing, ala Al Gore in the first 2000 debate, with his devilish grin, interrupting and hectoring. Right now, I can't figure out which.

This Blog Is Being Suspended

I am suspending this blog until the end of my financial crisis [which is semi-serious...I need a job, like, yesterday]...thanks John McCain for the great idea[I say half jokingly]...CS, I hope that you prove able to stand up to this financial crisis and continue to blog...be strong!

New York Dolls -- Personality Crisis
This is the fundamental New York Dolls track as it is Track #1 of Album #1.

Teenage Fanclub -- Personality Crisis [New York Dolls Cover]

The Go! Team -- Milk Crisis
This track could be found on the Proof of Youth bonus CD.

Bonus Track:

Placebo -- 20th Century Boy [T.Rex Cover]
This song, as well as the Teenage Fanclub cover, are from the Velvet Goldmine soundtrack.

¿Habla Español?

I don't know what it says but it's pissing off some conservatives.

Neglect

I've been sort of neglecting the blog this past week because I really don't know how much of this election I can take anymore. Pardon the astral physics simile but it is like the campaign is moving closer and closer to the speed of light and time is starting to slow down and maybe even go in reverse. It's like the the election is not responding to the the rules of nature like gravity or the laws of motion.

The polls make no sense. How does the addition of Sarah Palin make an Obama voter switch to McCain. Is it only about gender and nothing else? Karl Rove is criticizing McCain for false ads. This from the guy who spread rumors that McCain had an illegitimate black child. Obama is criticized for wanting children to know how to not get molested.

So for a while it's going to be just music from me...I feel like this guy from Get Your War On at the end of the day:

Roosevelt, Hoover, Reagan & Carter

"Just keep running against Hoover. Whoever the Republicans put up, run against Hoover." -- FDR

FDR's advice lasted at least until 1968 or more accurately until 1980. Whoever the Republicans ran for president, link them back to Hoover. Not necessarily by name, but in rhetoric. Look at JFK's 1960 DNC acceptance speech. Hoover is only mentioned once in passing, but JFK does everything he can to link Nixon to the pre-Depression Republican presidents like McKinley, Harding, Coolidge and Hoover as a way of scaring voters. It was telling them, "Don't elect a guy just like the fatcats who let the Great Depression happen." Between 1932 and 1976 -- 12 elections -- the Republicans won four of them, two by running the greatest war hero since Grant (and maybe even since Washington himself) and one by running a man who talked like a Republican and governed like a Democrat. The Republicans couldn't overcome Hoover.

Reagan never put it as explicitly as FDR did, but he might as well have. No matter who the Democrats put up, run against Carter. Paint your opponent as a return to the oppressive welfare state, as a man who doesn't understand how ordinary Americans think and live. Use liberal as a epithet. Paint government as the problem and not the solution. And since 1980 -- 7 elections -- the Democrats have won only two. And they needed a man who governed like a moderate Republican to do it.* In essence, Bush I won by turning Dukakis into a Carter/Mondale liberal. And Bush II did the same to Gore and Kerry.

(I think Nixon and Clinton are very similar politicians. Most of the time when the comparison is made, it inevitably centers around their ethics. But they also had the same core set of political instincts. Both were governing in an era when their party and its ideology were unpopular. The idea of government involvement in our lives was as politically popular in Nixon's day as it was unpopular in Clinton's. In order to survive politically, Nixon's presidency was almost as liberal as LBJ's. The EPA and OSHA were created. Title IX was passed. He seriously considered a guaranteed income proposal. Clinton would survive by signing essentially conservative legislation like welfare reform, NAFTA and DOMA. Their instincts were all about doing whatever was necessary to maintain their popularity and political capital because neither possessed a core lodestar of governing. There is a 0% chance that Nixon or Clinton would have left Reyjavik empty-handed. The idea of selling out SDI in exchange for incredible concessions from the Russians, complete with the adoration it would have generated in the news media and international community would have been an easy deal for either of them to make. They always grasped for political capital, but didn't have an essential plan for how they wanted to use that capital. In that respect, both are the reverse George W. Bush, who governs much like his government spends. He spends political capital regardless of whether he actually possesses it.)

The FDR Doctrine of always running against Hoover ran its natural course for nearly 50 years. By the time Reagan was running against Carter, most of the electorate had never lived under Hoover. The recession was bad, but you couldn't scare voters by tapping into their Great Depression memories. Alan Greenspan, a man known for circumspection in his speech, declared that "capitalism is in crisis" in the 1970s and questioned whether America was going to remain a free-market economy. So the idea of cutting taxes, deregulating industries and encouraging entrepreneurship was welcome under an oppressive government bureaucracy.

But as the FDR Doctrine proves, you can't run against the same person forever. Eventually, demographics and the political climate catch up with you. There have been several books out recently by respected conservative thinkers about how the Republicans should pivot to account for this political reality. But faced with an opponent who is a singular political talent and who has the momentum on his side, McCain has doubled down on the Reagan Doctrine. He is trying as hard as he can to turn Obama into a conventional liberal -- to repeat what Bush/Atwater did to Dukakis 20 years ago. This ad, which is as clumsy as it is unfair, is exactly the type of ad designed to make Obama look like a conventional 1980s liberal.

If McCain wins, it proves that the Reagan Doctrine had one more win in it, even as George W. Bush had done everything he could to create a political environment to kill it, mutilate its body and have the corpse thrown into the river. But eventually, it will lose its effectiveness. If McCain loses, especially if he loses big, the Republicans will have at least four years to spend trying to regroup. I think David Brooks has the right idea that the conservative status quo (often a redundancy) is very much in decline, but for different reasons.

Huckabee Tidbit

A little side note from an article on Mike Huckabee in Time:

He is most assuredly the only Republican ever to reference the Keanu Reeves movie Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure in a convention speech. And he is definitely the only one who can pull off rewriting the lyrics to "Cocaine," Eric Clapton's hit homage to drug abuse, into a campaign theme song called "McCain."

It's only a matter of time until the cease and desist order...

Eric Clapton -- Cocaine
From the Crossroads box set.

It Had To Be You.........

Matt,

Lets assume for the sake of argument that John McCain was looking for the following traits in a vice-president:
--Female
--Acceptable to the conservative base
--Doesn't automatically alienate swing voters
--Good campaigner
--Seen as ready to be president if necessary (experience, etc.)

Now lets look at the candidates and see how they fare:

Carly Fiorina: She does seem like Mitt Romney in a pantsuit. But had McCain picked her, the press would have instantly focused on her departure from Hewlett-Packard. She has no governing experience, so the heartbeat questions would still be there. Conservatives would view her warily. She has been one of McCain's surrogates, but hasn't done such a terrific job that her campaign skills would stand out. If McCain is trying to avoid being the ticket of the rich, a CEO is your last choice for vice-president.

Meg Whitman: The conservative base would probably find Whitman to be acceptable. The scale of acceptance probably does something like: hatred, suspicion, lukewarm, acceptable, happy, ecstatic. Her eBay time was largely a success. Again, the heartbeat questions are going to be even louder for her than they were for Palin. And she does pose the problem of being one of the few people in this country who is richer than McCain's family.

Lisa Murkowski, Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins: No, no, no.

Liddy Dole: She's running for re-election, so picking her could cost the GOP a Senate seat. She has no ability to campaign off the cuff and was very wooden in her run for president. If she was 10 years younger, she would have been a more serious prospect.

Kay Bailey Hutchison: This is probably the only other really viable candidate. The base would veer between hatred and lukewarm on her selection. She is a good campaigner, but not one that excites voters. In some ways, she is a female John McCain: fairly solid conservative who crosses over just enough to give the party heartburn. The experience questions would be less likely to come up.

No one can deny that Sarah Palin added excitement to the ticket unlike any other. If McCain wanted to simultaneously make the base deliriously happy, enrage the other side and make swing voters go, "Hmmm," he could not have picked a better candidate. Peggy Noonan (among others) is right: this pick is dynamite. We just don't know if it is going to blow up on Obama or McCain.

What Could Have Been

I think Sarah Palin is to me what Bill Clinton was to conservatives for most of the 90's. I'm finding she is dominating my thinking more and more everyday. So I turn to CS to help me through...

Dear CS,

Besides maybe a lack of desire to be Vice President, why didn't McCain pick Carly Fiorina as Vice President? Although I disagree with about everything that comes out of her mouth, she seems to be pretty competent in a Mitt Romney sort of way.

Thanks,

Matt

Does John McCain ever watch movies or TV or read books?

John McCain has done it. He is the equivalent of a black astronaut, the cop who is months away from retirement or the young soldier with a pregnant wife stateside. He is destined to die in office.

Picking a female vice-president is the surest way to guarantee that the president will die in office. Maybe his death will be long and slow, like Teddy Bridges. Maybe he'll die trying to prove his toughness. He should probably hire a food tester, because Palin might be out to kill him, Caroline Reynolds-style. When Glenn Close served as Harrison Ford's vice-president in Air Force One, we nearly had the immovable object versus the irresistible force of movie plot lines: Harrison Ford in an action flick (where you can assume he will save the day) vs. a male president in mortal danger with a female vice-president waiting in the wings (so you can assume he will die). Maybe he'll just be boring and die of a good old fashioned heart attack.

The Sarah Palin story is just too cliched. Go to Hollywood and pitch them this story:

"You've got a former beauty queen hockey mom who eloped with her high school sweetheart. She lives in Alaska and is living a normal life when she decides to run for City Council to make the small town where she lives into a better place. Before long, she ends up as the mayor. And then she is appointed to a powerful government board by a crusty U.S. Senator turned Governor. He ends up being corrupt, so she takes a big risk by speaking out against him and then running against him, trouncing him in the process. She spends two years as governor and finds herself pregnant with a Downs Syndrome baby. Not long after giving birth, she gets a discreet call asking her if she is interested in possibly running for vice-president. She figures she doesn't have a chance -- it'll probably go the former governor with perfect hair and the whitest teeth you've ever seen who got beat in the primaries -- but thinks it would be kind of cool to tell her grandchildren that she was almost vice-president. The Republican nominee is facing the first African-American presidential nominee and needs to shake up the race, so he meets with her and loves her and chooses her. She is introduced to the world and it isn't long before the press and her political opponents are digging up everything they can find. One of her sharpest critics is a gay blogger with a British accent. Suddenly the entire nation is buzzing about the fact that her 17-year old daughter is pregnant. People are questioning whether she will be able to stay on the ticket. She gives a great speech at the convention and starts prepping for a debate against a Senator who has been in Washington for 30 years and has a reputation as a loquacious blowhard and a superb debater."

The Hollywood exec would declare that it sounds way too cliched, but might ask how it would end.

We know how it would end. She would win the debate and help McCain win a narrow victory. Once inaugurated, she would discover that McCain has no use for her in actually running the country -- he only put her on the ticket to win. Left to a boring life of funerals and presiding over the Senate (a body which includes the losing president/VP nominees of the last election), she wishes she had stayed in Alaska. The mere mention of her name causes White House staffers to chuckle. About six months into his term, McCain will authorize a highly dangerous covert mission in Iran. Hours after ordering it, he will die of a heart attack in his sleep, leaving her in charge of a military mission that she knows nothing about. And this is the same time as her daughter's boyfriend/fiancee leaves her and the Downs Syndrome child is causing her trouble and heartbreak. Will she be able to balance it all?

Now you know why Bartlet never considered having a female politician replace Hoynes. Between that and multiple sclerosis, he would have been as good as gone.

The Palin Pick

When I got to work this morning and checked CNN, I was legitimately shocked to see a banner headline proclaiming that Alaska Governor Sarah Palin was McCain's running mate.

Her name had been bandied around, but I always dismissed it as the female version of J.C. Watts. Just as Democrats have fretted about the religion gap, Republicans fret about the gender and race gaps. And both sides love their trophies, the politicians who they can point to and say, "See, we aren't all bad." Ohio Governor Ted Strickland is always held up as a former pastor (even though he was only briefly the associate pastor at a church) and who can forget the endless parade of black Republicans at the 2000 Convention. If the auditor of Ohio County, Indiana had been a black Republican, I guarantee they would have addressed the convention. Palin seemed to be a superficial "hey, she's a woman and if we have a woman on the ticket, female voters might like us." It's the political version of "I'm not racist. Some of my best friends are black."

Hopefully, the McCain campaign wasn't thinking so superficially. I think the idea of sending Pawlenty or Romney to debate Biden scared them. Against Pawlenty/Romney, there was a very good chance of another Lloyd Bentsen-Dan Quayle moment where Biden fillets them as they look on plaintively. There wasn't a viable VP candidate who was going to be able to go into that debate and match Biden, haymaker for haymaker. But Palin changes that equation.*

(*Remember the Let Bartlet Be Bartlet West Wing episode, based on the famous Let Reagan Be Reagan memo? There is no one who has ever said Let Biden Be Biden. Joe Biden has always been irrepressively who he is. No matter the stakes, he will always be the brainy attention whore who loves a good quip and is the embodiment of an Irish hail-fellow-well-met. You cannot get him to change. When prepping for the Alito hearings, his staff implored him that he needed to ask short, open-ended questions to force the nominee to talk. And Biden told them he understood. And then promptly spent the hearings delivering rambling soliloquies that forced Alito to say virtually nothing. So if Palin leaves the door open to a great putdown quip, you would need a 110,000 volt cattle prod to keep him from making it. Against another white male politician, he could have that Bentsen moment. But against a young woman, he could have a Rick Lazio moment. He could come across as the hectoring male boss who belittles and doesn't respect the views of a younger female. It's an archetype that I'm guessing a lot of females have dealt with in their professional lives and would make them instantly sympathetic to Palin. So instead of finding someone that can beat Biden, they found someone who might be able to make Biden beat himself.)

Both Palin and McCain have something to prove with this pick. Palin's mission is obvious: she has to show that she can handle the national media spotlight on a daily basis where any misstep will race across the internet at record speed. This is an area of campaigning where Senators do better than Governors. Senators are used to the Washington media, understand how they operate and are cognizant of how words are perceived, received and can be skewed. Governors are used to dealing with their home state media, where provincialism is a plus, not a minus. It's a little bit like being president. How you are viewed in your own country and how you are viewed elsewhere in the world can be completely different. And coming from a state like Alaska only increases the learning curve. Palin got off to a distinctly un-Quayle like start in the announcement, but the key test will come in handling the day-to-day glare.

For McCain, he has to prove that this was not a token pick. You would think that proving Palin isn't the Republican Geraldine Ferraro would be Palin's job, but it's not. McCain has to prove that Palin will be a strong voice in his administration and this isn't just a sop to women. This will backfire if independent women voters think they are being patronized by McCain. And it isn't enough to throw her issues like women in small business or something that reeks of "women care about this crap, let me play with the army guys." McCain needs to let her take the lead on some gender-neutral issues. Let her be the one who hammers away on government waste and the Bridge to Nowhere. Let her hammer Biden and Obama for voting against an amendment that would have diverted money for the bridge her state didn't need to a state that did need it (post-Katrina Louisiana). It not only gives her some intellectual heft, but makes her look like a governing partner, not just a campaign partner.

This was probably the only pick that McCain could have made that would leave the base happy and make moderates curious. He deserves credit for having the guts to make the pick, even though he just handed the Democrats their instant rebuttal point on the experience question. This pick is playing with dynamite. The media will be quick to fit any gaffe into an inexperience narrative and the names Quayle and Ferraro will be just as quick to roll of their tongues. James Carville said that the key to picking a vice-president is to "make the opposing campaign manager throw up." I don't think David Axelrod has the heaves yet, but it probably made him sit down and think through how this changes the race and changes Obama's approach. And considering McCain's other options, that is a victory in and of itself.

Here's What Frightens Me

Okay, McCain has selected Gov. Sarah Palin as his VP candidate...Paul Begala succinctly summarizes the days discussion in his article as "Is McCain out of his mind?" In the end, I don't think this will change things much in the polls [I mean the polls that have Obama up by 8%]. I don't see how the selection would make people who wouldn't vote for McCain yesterday vote for him today. The problems they have/had with McCain [whatever they are] don't go away while Obama's biggest problem [lack of foreign policy experience] was addressed by his VP selection. For me this is a marginally positive "do no damage" selection.

That being said, I would say McCain has a slightly less chance than a coin flip at being our next President. That being the case, I am scared shit less that there is a chance that Sarah Palin could be the Vice President. At least with any of McCain's other choices I would have been assured A. An guaranteed improvement from Dick Cheney and B. Someone who knows what the Vice President does all day. I would have been most comfortable with Romney...he's run businesses and I am sure that if I ever met him he would be one of the nicest people I've ever met...Plus a Vice President I can call Mittens is always fun...Tim Pawlenty would have been okay too, I mean no one from Minnesota has ever done anything really bad, right?

The McCain Veepstakes

Here is the Official CS Take on the McCain VP Prospects:

Governor Tim Pawlenty (MN): A boring and predictable pick. Notice that I didn't say he was a safe one. If Pawlenty is the pick, look for a consensus to emerge that this is Quayle Redux. If you thought Bush got through the Gore and Kerry debates by winning the expectations game, wait for Pawlenty-Biden. Pawlenty might win the expectations game simply by not pulling down his pants and molesting children on the stage.

Former Governor Mitt Romney (MA): Nice enough guy, does a good job with attack talking points. But the houses debate will only get worse. And I guarantee you -- I'd bet every penny I have -- that the Obama team has a similiar ad waiting if Romney is the pick.

Senator Joe Lieberman (CT): Lieberman is the dangerous girl in a motorcycle jacket that McCain wants to be with, but knows he can't (as odd as it is to compare a Jewish kid from New Haven to a motorcycle chick). He would love to govern with him, but the convention would become about nothing other than Republicans Gone Wild. If Lieberman was the pick, I don't know if Republicans or Democrats would be more ticked off.

Governor Bobby Jindal (LA): I think he has other things on his mind this week.

Governor Sarah Palin (AK): I don't get the groundswell for support for this pick. I want to say she is a rising star in the party, but I am not sure what concrete policy achievements she has had to back that up. Picking her would hurt the argument on Obama's qualifications and a McCain-Palin stage would look more like an old man hanging out with his decidely-attractive younger wife than it would resemble a presidential ticket. I am pretty skeptical of the "women automatically want to support a woman politician" argument, so the benefit to the ticket could be fairly minimal.

Congressman Eric Cantor (VA): A rising star in the party, only big-time Jewish Republican in who knows how long. He definitely has a future, either as Speaker of the House or the Senate or possibly on a national ticket. But he is very obscure and I am not sure what the media consensus would be.

Former Congressman and OMB director Rob Portman (OH): Probably the best pick McCain can make. He's got experience on economic and budget issues, comes from a swing state, conservatives would be happy and doesn't seem to have any major flaws outside of obscurity. He's old enough to avoid the experience questions (52) and young enough that it doesn't make the ticket look like two old men.


McCain has got to approach this pick remembering the No. 1 rule of selecting a vice president: First, do no harm. Portman does the least harm and has a decent upside.

McCain's Ad

It's my turn to give McCain some credit where it is due: he wasn't a jerk with leaking his Vice-Presidential pick tonight.

I had heard McCain was going to run an ad during the convention and I guess he did but I either missed it or Kansas isn't in contention enough to spend money to air it here...oh wait, I watched the speech on PBS...nevermind...anyway, the advert is actually sort of nice and would make me almost vote for him if it had been Hillary giving that speech tonight...



I personally can't get too angry with those woman out there who may not vote for Barack because he beat Hillary. If Hillary had won, I probably would have started my own Barack Voters for McCain group and gone to the convention and sounded incoherent on MSNBC like these ladies:

This Can't Be Real

The Dallas Morning News has a story on how Texas has the highest percentage of people without health insurance. For some reason they asked a John McCain health care policy advisor, John Goodman, what he thought about this...

You don't need a master's degree in Healthcare Administration to be shocked by what he said:

But the numbers are misleading, said John Goodman, president of the National Center for Policy Analysis, a right-leaning Dallas-based think tank. Mr. Goodman, who helped craft Sen. John McCain's health care policy, said anyone with access to an emergency room effectively has insurance, albeit the government acts as the payer of last resort. (Hospital emergency rooms by law cannot turn away a patient in need of immediate care.)

"So I have a solution. And it will cost not one thin dime," Mr. Goodman said. "The next president of the United States should sign an executive order requiring the Census Bureau to cease and desist from describing any American – even illegal aliens – as uninsured. Instead, the bureau should categorize people according to the likely source of payment should they need care.

"So, there you have it. Voila! Problem solved."

Mr. Goodman's analysis drew a sharp response from the Center for Public Policy Priorities, an Austin-based think tank focusing on poverty issues. "That is not the same thing as having health insurance," said Eva Deluna, a budget analyst for the center. People without insurance are less likely to seek care, and when they do, the cost to the health system is greater, she said.

The idea that he doesn't know the basic tenants of the EMTALA laws is a little frightening. The laws only provide ER care to patients with an emergency medical condition...what that exactly means is left to the hospital to decide. A badly sprained ankle probably wouldn't be covered. A severe flu may not be treated. Furthermore, the level of care that must be provided is to "stabilize" the person or transfer them. If a person has a heart attack, the ER would only be required to treat the blockage and stabilize...no rehabilitation care would be required by law. This is not an insurance plan.

Gomez -- Emergency Surgery
From the Abandoned Shopping Trolley Hotline album.

Stereolab -- The Emergency Kisses
From the Cobra and Phases Group Play Voltage in the Milkey Night.

Beck -- Emergency Exit
From the Guero album.

Mogwai -- Emergency Trap
From the Mr. Beast album.

999 -- Emergency
From The Best Punk Album in the World collection.

McCain VP Sweepstakes

So at last check we have Tim Pawlenty clearing his schedule, Mitt Romney's sister's house being swept by the Secret Service, Joe Lieberman voting with Democrats on everything except national security, and Kay Bailey Hutchison still supporting the Roe v. Wade decision...where's that leave us?